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In the run up to the next Portuguese legislative election, various organisations will carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the 2024 Portuguese legislative election, held on 10 March, to the present day.

Nationwide polling

Graphical Summary

Polling

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, parties are shaded with their colour. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Polls that show their results without distributing those respondents who are undecided or said they would abstain from voting, are re-calculated by removing these numbers from the totals through a simple rule of three, in order to obtain results comparable to other polls and the official election results.

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout	[REDACTED]						[REDACTED]		O	Lead
Intercampus	21–26 Jan 2025	638	?	27.8	28.2	17.3	7.0	5.9	3.4	3.9	3.4	3.1	0.4
ICS/ISCTE	9–20 Jan 2025	805	?	33	30	17	4	3	3	2	2	6	3
Pitagórica	28 Dec 2024–5 Jan 2025	400	?	32.9	26.9	16.3	5.7	4.3	4.0	3.1	1.4	5.4	6.0
Intercampus	21–27 Nov 2024	605	?	28.8	30.0	16.2	8.3	5.8	3.3	3.3	3.2	1.0	1.2
Aximage	15–22 Nov 2024	800	71.0	28.1	26.7	20.9	6.0	3.3	3.7	4.3	1.6	5.4	1.4
Aximage	13–19 Nov 2024	802	78.1	29.8	28.6	18.2	6.8	4.0	2.6	4.1	2.4	3.5	1.2
CESOP–UCP	17–23 Oct 2024	1,025	?	33	29	18	6	4	3	3	2	2	4
Intercampus	4–10 Oct 2024	612	?	28.2	29.5	14.1	7.5	6.0	3.8	3.5	2.0	5.3	1.3
Aximage	30 Sep–5 Oct 2024	802	68.0	32.1	28.6	15.1	6.3	5.5	3.0	3.5	2.3	3.6	3.5
Intercampus	29 Aug–4 Sep 2024	604	?	29.5	31.5	14.8	8.2	6.3	3.6	3.0	1.3	1.8	2.0
Intercampus	19–26 Jul 2024	609	?	28.7	26.0	15.5	9.8	6.3	2.4	5.3	3.6	2.4	2.7
CESOP–UCP	7–13 Jul 2024	957	?	31	33	14	7	4	3	3	2	3	2
Aximage	3–8 Jul 2024	801	74.9	27.6	29.5	17.5	7.1	4.6	3.5	4.1	2.5	3.6	1.9
2024 EP elections	9 Jun 2024	—	36.6	31.1 (89)	32.1 (87)	9.8 (19)	9.1 (20)	4.3 (5)	4.1 (5)	3.8 (5)	1.2 (0)	4.5 (0)	1.0
Intercampus	29 May–4 Jun 2024	604	?	29.5	27.1	16.1	9.3	7.1	1.6	5.5	3.1	0.7	2.4
Intercampus	12–20 May 2024	609	?	23.7	24.7	17.4	9.0	8.2	2.5	9.4	3.2	1.9	1.0
CESOP–UCP	13–18 May 2024	965	?	30	29	19	5	4	3	5	2	3	1
Intercampus	18–23 Apr 2024	605	?	24.3	28.7	15.6	7.9	9.7	2.3	5.7	2.9	2.9	4.4
2024 legislative election	10 Mar 2024	—	59.9	28.8 80	28.0 78	18.1 50	4.9 8	4.4 5	3.2 4	3.2 4	2.0 1	7.5 0	0.8

Leadership polls

Preferred prime minister

Poll results showing public opinion on who would make the best prime minister or who is better positioned to win are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Luís Montenegro vs Pedro Nuno Santos

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date			N	Both/ O	NO	Lead
Aximage	13–19 Nov 2024	40	28	18	8	6	12
Aximage	30 Sep–5 Oct 2024	45	28	16	7	4	17
Intercampus	29 Aug–4 Sep 2024	45.9	31.8	—	—	22.3	14.1
Aximage	3–8 Jul 2024	37	28	16	11	8	9
Aximage	17–22 May 2024	40	28	18	9	5	12

Leaders' ratings

Poll results showing the public opinion on all political party leaders rated from 0 to 10 (with the former being strong disapproval and the latter strong approval) are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order (showing the most recent first).

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date										Lead
Intercampus	21–26 Jan 2025	6.0	4.8	5.4	4.4	5.4	4.8	4.4	5.4	5.0	0.6
ICS/ISCTE	9–20 Jan 2025	5.1	3.8	4.7	3.5	3.7	3.6	3.2	3.9	3.4	0.4
Intercampus	21–27 Nov 2024	6.2	5.0	5.6	4.4	5.8	4.8	4.6	5.8	5.2	0.4
CESOP–UCP	17–23 Oct 2024	6.0	—	5.2	3.5	4.6	3.9	3.5	4.5	3.8	0.8
Intercampus	4–10 Oct 2024	6.2	4.8	5.8	4.4	5.6	5.2	4.6	5.8	5.2	0.4
Intercampus	29 Aug–4 Sep 2024	6.6	5.0	6.2	4.6	5.8	5.4	4.6	5.6	5.2	0.4
Intercampus	19–26 Jul 2024	6.4	5.2	5.6	4.4	5.8	5.2	4.6	5.8	5.4	0.6
CESOP–UCP	7–13 Jul 2024	5.7	—	4.8	3.3	4.5	4.2	3.5	4.4	3.7	0.9
Intercampus	29 May–4 Jun 2024	6.2	5.2	5.6	4.6	6.0	5.4	4.8	6.0	5.6	0.2
Intercampus	12–20 May 2024	6.0	5.0	5.8	4.8	6.0	5.6	4.8	6.4	5.6	0.4
CESOP–UCP	13–18 May 2024	5.7	—	4.9	3.5	4.6	4.4	4.0	4.9	4.0	0.8
Intercampus	18–23 Apr 2024	5.8	5.0	5.6	4.4	5.8	5.4	4.8	6.0	5.6	0.2

Cabinet approval/disapproval ratings

Polling

Poll results showing public opinion on the performance of the Government are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Notes

1. Results presented here exclude undecideds (12.3%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 24.7%; AD: 24.4%; CHEGA: 15.2%; IL: 6.1%; BE: 5.2%; Livre: 3.4%; CDU: 3.0%; PAN: 3.0%; Others/Invalid: 2.7%.
2. Results presented here exclude undecideds (9.8%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 27.1%; AD: 26.0%; CHEGA: 14.6%; IL: 7.5%; BE: 5.2%; CDU: 3.0%; Livre: 3.0%; PAN: 2.9%; Others/Invalid: 0.9%.
3. Results presented here exclude undecideds (6.9%). With their inclusion results are: AD: 26.2%; PS: 24.9%; CHEGA: 19.5%; IL: 5.6%; Livre: 4.0%; CDU: 3.4%; BE: 3.1%; PAN: 1.5%; Others/Invalid: 5.0%.
4. Results presented here exclude undecideds (13.6%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 25.5%; AD: 24.3%; CHEGA: 12.2%; IL: 6.5%; BE: 5.2%; CDU: 3.3%; Livre: 3.0%; PAN: 1.7%; Others/Invalid: 4.6%.
5. Results presented here exclude undecideds (9.9%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 28.4%; AD: 26.6%; CHEGA: 13.3%; IL: 7.4%; BE: 5.7%; CDU: 3.2%; Livre: 2.7%; PAN: 1.2%; Others/Invalid: 1.6%.
6. Results presented here exclude undecideds (8.1%). With their inclusion results are: AD: 26.4%; PS: 23.9%; CHEGA: 14.3%; IL: 9.0%; BE: 5.8%; Livre: 4.9%; PAN: 3.3%; CDU: 2.2%; Others/Invalid: 2.2%.
7. Results presented here exclude undecideds (9.2%). With their inclusion results are: AD: 26.8%; PS: 24.6%; CHEGA: 14.6%; IL: 8.5%; BE: 6.5%; Livre: 5.0%; PAN: 2.8%; CDU: 1.6%; Others/Invalid: 0.6%.
8. Results presented here exclude undecideds (6.3%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 23.1%; AD: 22.2%; CHEGA: 16.3%; Livre: 8.8%; IL: 8.4%; BE: 7.7%; PAN: 3.0%; CDU: 2.3%; Others/Invalid: 1.8%.
9. Results presented here exclude undecideds (7.4%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 26.6%; AD: 22.5%; CHEGA: 14.4%; BE: 9.0%; IL: 7.3%; Livre: 5.3%; PAN: 2.7%; CDU: 2.1%; Others/Invalid: 2.7%.
10. Question: Who do you think has more competency to be the prime minister of Portugal, the current prime minister Luís Montenegro or Pedro Nuno Santos?
11. Intercampus and Aximage polls rate party leaders from 1 to 5. CESOP–UCP poll rates party leaders from 0 to 20. The results are adapted to match the ICS/ISCTE polls.

References

1. "AD ficava à frente em São Bento com resultados das europeias" (in Portuguese). Diário de Notícias. 2024-06-11. Retrieved 2024-06-11.
2. "Eleições Legislativas 2024". legislativas2024.mai.gov.pt (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-03-31.

External links

• Marktest Opinion Poll Tracker
• ERC - Official publication of polls
• Average of polls and seat simulator

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